Why Penrith Can’t Win the Premiership, But Brisbane Still Have a Shot” ….

“Why Penrith Can’t Win the Premiership, But Brisbane Still Have a Shot”

Why Penrith Can’t Win the Premiership, But Brisbane Still Have a Shot

For the past three seasons, the Penrith Panthers have been the dominant force in the NRL. They’ve built a dynasty based on youth, resilience, and systems that smothered opponents week after week. But as the 2025 season charges into its final stretch, a truth is becoming harder to ignore — Penrith don’t look like champions anymore. In contrast, the Brisbane Broncos, still smarting from their grand final collapse in 2023 and coming close again in 2024, seem to be gaining momentum at just the right time.

So why can’t Penrith win it again? And why might this finally be Brisbane’s year?

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The Penrith Dynasty Is Cracking

Three straight premierships (2021-2023). Four grand finals in a row. What Ivan Cleary and his squad have achieved is nothing short of remarkable. But even dynasties have expiration dates. The cracks are visible — and widening.

1. Player Fatigue and Injuries

Winning takes a toll. Reaching four consecutive grand finals means over 100 games of high-pressure, finals-style football in just four years. That kind of grind wears down even the toughest bodies. Key players like Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo have carried a massive load year after year. Cleary’s lingering hamstring issues in 2025 have disrupted the team’s rhythm and cohesion, and even when he’s on the field, he hasn’t looked like the generational general of seasons past.

Throw in injuries to spine players like Dylan Edwards and Api Koroisau’s long-gone influence, and you have a team struggling to maintain its dominance.

2. Loss of Key Players

This isn’t the same Panthers side that steamrolled the comp in 2022. Salary cap pressure, the price of success, and natural squad turnover have bitten hard. Viliame Kikau, Koroisau, Stephen Crichton, Matt Burton — all critical cogs who have moved on. The Panthers have replaced them well, but there’s a noticeable dip in explosiveness and experience when it matters most.

3. The League Has Caught Up

Penrith were innovators. Their defensive structure, line speed, and ability to pin teams deep in their own half were revolutionary. But now, teams like the Broncos, Storm, and even the Warriors have adopted and adapted those systems. The aura of invincibility around Penrith is gone. Teams don’t fear them like they used to — they smell blood.

4. Lack of X-Factor

The Panthers are still clinical, but where’s the magic? In close games this year, they’ve looked flat. There’s less unpredictability, less spark. Jarome Luai, while fiery and energetic, hasn’t consistently provided that game-breaking moment. Compare that to the Broncos’ arsenal of playmakers, and you can see the difference in ceiling.

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Why Brisbane Still Have a Shot

The Broncos haven’t lifted the premiership trophy since 2006, but they’re getting closer with each campaign. After narrowly missing the title in 2023 and building on that progress in 2024, 2025 feels like a moment of destiny. Here’s why they still have a real shot.

1. Youth Meets Experience

Brisbane’s spine is maturing beautifully. Reece Walsh is electric at the back, mixing flair with growing game management. Ezra Mam has evolved from raw speed to controlled aggression, while Adam Reynolds — in likely his final season — is steering the ship with class. His leadership, kicking game, and composure in clutch moments are exactly what premierships are built on.

And now, this is a team with finals experience. The heartbreak of 2023 toughened them. They’re not just hungry — they’re smarter.

2. The Forward Pack Is Peaking

Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan, and Thomas Flegler (before his departure) built the foundation. In 2025, new contributors have stepped up to add depth and dynamism. Brisbane’s pack doesn’t just match other teams — it dominates them. When Haas is rolling through the middle, and Carrigan is cleaning up every loose ball, the Broncos build pressure that overwhelms.

They’ve got power, mobility, and aggression. And this year, they’ve added discipline.

3. Reece Walsh: The Wild Card

Walsh is the definition of a game-changer. He’s not just fast — he’s intelligent, unpredictable, and fearless. Yes, his risk-taking can backfire, but more often than not, it breaks games open. In finals footy, when defences are tight and moments are few, that X-factor could be the difference between heartbreak and history.

If he gets hot in September, no team — not even Melbourne or Souths — can contain him.

4. Motivation and Timing

There’s a sense of unfinished business in Brisbane